Which one of the following is the simple and easiest method of forecasting?

Explanation:

Types of Forecasting:

• Qualitative methods
• Quantitative (TIme series) methods
• Casual methods​

​Qualitative methods:

1. Delphi method
2. Market research
3. Panel consensus
4. Visionary forecast
5. Historical analogy

Quantitative methods:

1. Moving average
2. Exponential smoothing
3. Box-Jenkins
4. X-11
5. Trend Projections

Casual methods:

1. Regression model
2. Economic model
3. Anticipations survey
4. Input-output model
5. Extrapolation

Moving Average method:

• Each point of the moving average of a time series is the arithmetic or weighted average of a number of consecutive points of the series.
• When there is enough available history data available, then this method is used.

Exponential smoothing method:

• It is similar to the moving average method except for the fact that recent data points are given more weightage.
• It needs a single parameter called alpha (α), also known as the smoothing factor.
• Alpha controls the rate at which the influence of past observations decreases exponentially. The parameter is often set to a value between 0 and 1.

Regression:

• In regression. there is a relationship between two different variables, called the dependent and independent variables.
• After deciding the relationship between two variables, the equation can be generated to forecast future data.
• Simple linear regression is commonly used in forecasting and financial analysis.

Extrapolation:

• a method of prediction that assumes that the patterns that existed in the past will continue on into the future and that those patterns are regular and can be measured. In other words, the past is a good indicator of the future.
• It is one of the easiest and simplest methods of forecasting and it is used where there is enough past data available that is not subjected to change drastically in near future.